Here are the results at the end of the F1902 Adjustment Phase, with a summary of builds:
Results for Fall, 1902 (Adjustment)
General Notices:
Order resolution completed on 08-Oct-2014 at 10:30:02 EDT
Order Results: Austria:
England: England: Builds A lon
France: France: Builds F marFrance: Builds A par
Germany: Germany: Removes F bal
Italy: Italy: Builds A ven
Russia:Russia: Builds A war
Turkey: Turkey: Builds A ank
.General Erasmus Blatt is a better judge of these things than I am, but here are some quick comments.
England surprised me by building an Army rather than a Fleet.
France is hedging its bets between naval and land policy and holds the balance of power in the West.
Turkey’s new Army in Ankara should give the Russians pause for though, although Sev is safe for the moment. On the other hand, Russia’s build of an Army in Warsaw shows that it wants to be a serious player in the battle for the remnants of the Austrian empire and for a share of the Balkans. I don’t see how long-term peace between Russia and Turkey is possible at this rate.
Italy’s build of an Army in Venice is also surprising and shows that it has, with some justification, trust in France and Turkey, though with only one fleet in Tunis, Italy has to be watching the waters east and west with some trepidation.
While Germany bids adieu to being a sea power, it has two armies concentrated in the east and could be a definite spoiler.
Let the Spring 1903 turn begin! Hopefully we can get all orders in by Saturday midnight my time, but I want to leave some time for diplomacy. I’m sure there will be a lot of it.
The Demise of the House of Hapsburg.
ReplyDeleteA commentary by General Sir Erasmus Blatt, geo-political and military correspondent for the Rioters News Agency.
It was not long in coming: the last of the Hapsburg Emperors, his Imperium reduced to the environs of Vienna itself; his fleet scuttled, captured or interned; his armies reduced to little more than a personal bodyguard; is no longer Emperor. A rump government remains in Vienna barely retaining any governance over the street mobs.
The main beneficiaries have been Russia and Italy, who have carved up the Empire between them. Which of the two will take Vienna? One thing is certain: the Kaiser will not be sharing the spoils. And how is Turkey placed?
The crumbs at the feast have certainly been plentiful and sustaining, for the Sultan is now master of the Balkans, barring Romania, and has a very considerable naval presence in the eastern half of the Mediterranean Sea into the bargain. But it is becoming clear to your correspondent that as the Hapsburg provinces are to be shared between Victor-Emmanuel and Nikolai II, Abdul Hamid will find himself with no further expansion possible without he attacks one or other of his erstwhile allies. That is supposing, of course, that there was an alliance between Italy, Turkey and Russia.
So expect a "falling out among thieves" by at least the Fall of 1903, as Turkey joins with Italy against Russia, or with Russia against Italy. At that, I should not be astonished if in the coming months the Grand Vizier of the Porte were to pay court to the Queen in London, with the view to securing a long-term deal with the United Kingdom.
In the West the Anglo-French detente has reaped rich rewards for both partners, and this looks likely to continue. As Spain will fall like ripe fruit into its own lap, the Republic can afford to see England capture the German main naval base at Kiel. At the end of 1903, the 13 units the Detente can command between them will be poised to sweep past Switzerland into eastern Europe. The Kaiser is on borrowed time - borrowed at a heavy rate of interest, at that.
Such a prospect - caught between an eastward expanding Detente, and the Porte seeking to expand westward, must give the King of Italy and the Tsar some pause (The Kaiser must know already that the game is up for him - if he can swing any kind of lasting deal at all, it would be would be a master-stroke of diplomacy. Some fast talking with Russia and Italy might yet give him hope to survive a little longer, though even then it would be as Uriah the Hittite, in the forefront of the battle). Powerful in the south, the Russian Empire is looking decidedly vulnerable in the north. Placed as it is, Italy has for the moment little to fear from France (though the recent commissioning of the Mediterranean Fleet in Marseille must surely be making Victor-Emmanuel feel a little bit thoughtful), but the powerful Turkish Navy might well be very concerning.
Quite what the future holds, this writer hesitates to state with absolute certainty. But if it transpires that a Triple Alliance of Britain, France and Turkey develops against Russia and Italy together, this should surprise no one. Germany will be dismembered 'en passant.' But an alternative, if much less likely, scenario is possible: South against North. That would be an alliance of France, Italy and Turkey, possibly with Germany as hostage, against Russia and England. As I say: unlikely, for such an alliance would necessarily be a fragile one. For one thing, the Anglo-Gallican Detente is so obviously in the interests of both partners, for the coming year or two at least, that it would be more than a bold decision to forego it in pursuit of more tenuous accords.
31 December 1902.